45 years, annualized 16.65%

Source: Snowball APP, Author: Mo Mo said, (

"Snowball reference" in September 2024 The first article, "New Perspective Perspective of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut logic", was written by the Snowball Investment Research Department.

I intercepted one of them and shared it with everyone: The article said that the Ensex30 index valuation is near 50%of the division in the past ten years, but I checked it and questioned this data.

1. How is the historical return of Indian Sensex30

The S & P BSE Sensex Index is a weighted index of a market value.The selection of index components is based on liquidity, depth, depth of circulation adjustment, and industry representativeness.India's Sensex30 Index was released on January 1, 1986. The base date was April 3, 1979. The base point is 100 points and 30 ingredients are.

As of September 19, 2024, the Indian Sensex30 Index is currently 83184.80 points. The monthly line chart is as follows. As a heavy warehouse, it is really envious.

Data source: Wind, as of September 19, 2024, historical performance does not indicate the future trend

From the perspective of annualized returns, the specific data is as follows.

Data source: Wind, as of September 18, 2024, historical performance does not indicate the future trend

India's Sensex30 Index, 22.71%in the past year, and annualized return of -14.93%in the same period;

The Indian Sensex30 Index has a reward of 12.14%in the past three years, and the annualized return of the index during the same period is -13.67%;

The Indian Sensex30 Index has a reward of 18.00%annualized in the past five years, and the annualized return of the index during the same period is -4.23%;

The Indian Sensex30 Index has a reward of 11.99%in the past ten years, and the index returns at 2.87%in the same period;

The Indian Sensex30 Index has an annualized return of 16.65%since the date of the base day, and the annualized return of the index is 6.21%.

They are all India's SenseX30 index.

You must know that the Indian Sensex30 Index Base Day was April 3, 1979. It has been 45 years now, and it has reached 16.65%of the annualized return.

Of course, the index is currently relatively low for a long time, and the Indian Sensex30 Index is relatively high.

However, the base date of the index was December 31, 2004, more than 20 years later than the Indian Sensex30 index. Therefore, I personally think that the above data reference significance is still relatively large.

2. What is the current valuation of Indian Sensex30

According to Wind data, as of September 13, 2024- ——

From the perspective of the P / E ratio TTM valuation, the current is 24.05 times, at the past ten years of valuation points of 67.32%, the risk value is 27.04 times, the median number is 23.04 times, and the opportunity value is 20.33 times.

Data source: Wind, as of September 13, 2024, historical performance does not indicate the future trend

From the perspective of the PB valuation of the municipal ratio, the current is 4.44 times, at the past ten years of valuation points of 99.23%, the risk value is 3.59 times, the median number is 3.03 times, and the opportunity value is 2.72 times.

Data source: Wind, as of September 13, 2024, historical performance does not indicate the future trend

Therefore, from the perspective of valuation, it is also at a relatively high level. It is not as mentioned in the beginning of the article- "The Sensex30 Index valuation is near 50%of the ten years."Essence

3. At present, there are two Indian active funds in the marketNew Delhi Stock Exchange

As of now, there are two active funds that mainly invest in the Indian market in the market, namely (164824) and Manuri Indian stock (QDII) (006105).Jing.$ India Fund LOF (SZ164824) $ $ ICBC India Fund RMB (F164824) $ $ Manuri Indian Stock (QDII) (F006105) $

Among them, (164824) is also a LOF fund. LOF Fund is a fund that can invest in both the court and can invest outside the court.When there was a premium on the court, I still had a tractor arbitrage before.Udabur Investment

1. Comparison of performance

The recent performance comparison comparison of performance of (QDII) (006105) (006105) in Manilians (006105) showed below.

From the data point of view, the deadline for ICBC India LOF Fund was September 18, 2024, and the deadline for the Manuri Indian Fund was September 13, 2024.If you look at it roughly, it seems that the performance of the ICBC India LOF Fund is even better.

2. Comparison of performance benchmark

From the perspective of scale, as of now (164824), the scale is larger. The performance benchmark is the Indian ETP index yield × 90%+RMB survival deposit yield (after tax) × 10%.

The performance benchmark of another fund Manoly India (QDII) (006105) is the MSCI Index Index yield (adjusted by RMB exchange rate) × 90%+RMB current deposit interest rate (after tax) × 10%.

3Jaipur Stock. Comparison of institutional investors holding status

From the perspective of institutional holdings, ICBC India LOF was held 655 million yuan by institutional investors.As of September 18, 2024, the fund's unit net value was 1.6215, which can be estimated that institutional investors hold a amount of 1.062 billion yuan.

Data source: Wind, as of June 30, 2024

Walm India is holding 334 million yuan by institutional investors.As of September 13, 2024, the fund's unit net value was 1.5885, which can be estimated that institutional investors hold a 531 million yuan.

Data source: Wind, as of June 30, 2024

4. Whether the fund manager himself holds

Inquiring on the fund interim in 2024, Liu Weilin held the fund share of the (164824) of the (164824), and he did not hold much.

Inquiring on the 2024 Fund Report, Shi Jing held his fund share of the Walm India (QDII) (006105) that he was in charge of his management.

Fourth, the latest view of fund managers

In the fund report in 2024, Liu Weilin said,

"The overseas environment faced by India in the second half of 2024 is similar to other emerging markets.

The current market is expected to start at the Federal Reserve in September 2024, and the annual cumulative interest rate reduction is 75bps.In this market environment, the financial conditions of emerging markets are expected to gradually improve, and emerging markets represented by India are expected to attract more global allocation of funds.

India has grown into the fourth largest country in the world's stock market value, and is also one of the first choice for foreign investment to increase emerging markets.

Compared with other emerging markets, India has a huge consumer market and a relatively sufficient growth momentum. The global economy will also drive Indian service trade growth.

The current MSCI Indian index valuation is still in a reasonable range, and there is no significant valuation bubble.

Bloomberg is currently expected to be about 7%of India's GDP growth rate in 2024, and the high growth rate of India's economy may continue in the second half of the year.

Overseas investors in the Indian stock market are relatively high, and the pressure of foreign capital outflows will decrease under the expected expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the inflows have increased.

The decline in the cost of Indian investors is basically good, and it is expected that the Indian stock market will still have motivation.

This fund is a fund in the fund and is mainly invested in related funds (including ETFs) that track the Indian market abroad. The fund manager will continue to invest in stock funds in accordance with the fund contract requirements according to the requirements of the fund contract.Under the premise of risks, strive to achieve an effective tracking of the trend of the Indian stock market."

Shi Jing said in the fund report in 2024,

"In the first half of 2024, most of the global markets recorded positive income. The overall performance of the market indexes in developed countries was better than the emerging market index. The top markets were the Nasdaq market in the United States, the Japanese market and the Indian market.

In the quarter, the global market performed well in the first quarter. The market performance of developed countries is better than the development of the Indian market. In the second quarter, the emerging market indexes performed better than the market index of developed countries. The Indian market has performed more stable performance in the first two quarters.

In the first quarter, the Indian regulatory layer proposed to strengthen the supervision of the small and medium -sized market value stocks in India to prevent risk incidents.The news that foreign capital inflows was 1.6 billion US dollars. At the same time, the news that Indian bonds were included in the global bond index also made India's rupees strong. The Indian election ended in the second quarter.After the announcement of the election results, the stock market has fluctuated in large fluctuations, especially the government investment related stocks have a large decline on the same day. In terms of funds, foreign capital has greatly flowed out of the Indian market in the early stage of the election.Essence

In terms of data, India announced the growth rate of 8.2%of the 8.2%GDP growth of 2023-2024, which greatly surpassed the average expectations of the market. At the same time, the economic expectations for fiscal 2024-2025 increased from 7%to 7.2%.

Overseas, the FOMC meeting in June remains unchanged, and the dot -matrix map implies that the interest rates may be reduced once during the year. The wording of inflation has changed from "lack of further progress" to "a moderate further progress".In the state, the geographical situation has gradually improved in the late second quarter.

Looking at, we believe that the US economy began to show signs of slowing down, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut was determined, but it was still uncertain about the continuity of interest rate cuts.

The funds will be selected in the Harris transaction in Trump's transactions and Trump transactions, which will inevitably bring fluctuations to the financial market in the second half of the year. We need to pay attention to the impact of inflation and uncertainty on inflation and global economy.

In India, the stable growth of the domestic economy and the more mild level of inflation have brought fundamental support to the Indian stock market.

After the Indian election, the main line of the policy remains unchanged, but it is even more balanced.

In the short term, after the annual budget case is implemented, it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy, and at the same time pay attention to the disturbance of the market and the fluctuations of the market overseas.

During the reporting period, in terms of fund operations, we still maintain a concentration of individual stocks and the decentralized investment strategies of the industry. We have a long -term preference for long -term sectors in the Indian market, but the overall combination is more balanced.In the first half of the year, the industrial stocks with a good valuation of the increase in the early half profitable have made a profit, which increased the configuration of technology stocks and consumer sectors with more adjustments in the early stage."

5. Write at the end

From the perspective of valuation, the Indian Sensex30 Index has been at a relatively high level of valuation in the past 10 years, especially PB valuation is 99.23%in the past 10 years.It is an indisputable fact that the valuation is not particularly cheap.

In the 2024 fund report, Shi Jing mentioned that the current valuation was "higher valuation".

As a manager of the fund, the fund manager is optimistic about the suspicion of the butt to determine the head in a small composition. When investing in the Indian market, it is best to be more cautious.

This article is your own sorting notes. All content is personal research, which does not constitute investment advice. Please pay more attention to objective data.

Risk reminder: The relevant views of the transition are from relevant agencies or public media channels. I do not guarantee the accuracy and integrity of the point of view. Investors operate according to this and risk.The above content is for reference only. Those who involve individual stocks in the article do not constitute stock recommendations and investment suggestions. The stock market fluctuates greatly. Please be careful before buying.There are risks in the market, and the fixed investment is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.@@@@@##

Agra Wealth Management